First Net Print, November 23 1999
Second Net Print, November 25 1999
Third Net Print, October 30 2001

REPORT OF THE SECRETARY-GENERAL
PURSUANT TO GENERAL ASSEMBLY
RESOLUTION 53/35 (1998)

VI.
OVERVIEW OF DEPLOYMENT IN SREBRENICA:
FEBRUARY-JULY 1995

Dutchbat-3 (hereinafter referred to as Dutchbat) had taken over from Dutchbat-2 on 18 January 1995. The new battalion comprised approximately 780 personnel of all ranks, of which some 600 were deployed in the Srebrenica safe area. Dutchbat within the enclave consisted of the Battalion Headquarters, two infantry companies (B and C Companies), a reconnaissance platoon (with commando personnel), two security platoons, an engineer platoon, a detachment from the Explosive Ordnance Disposal Command, and two Forward Air Controller Teams (FACs). In lay terms, approximately 300 of those 600 personnel were infantry soldiers, with the remainder serving in various support capacities.

The Battalion HQ was based in Poto...ari, a village located 6-7 km north of Srebrenica town, and less than 2 km south of the Morrillon Line (the boundary of the safe area, as negotiated in April-May 1993). C Company was co-located with the Battalion HQ in Poto...ari, and maintained 5 Observation Posts (OPs November, Papa, Quebec, Romeo and Alpha) in the northern portion of the enclave. B Company was located in Srebrenica town, and maintained 3 Observation Posts (OPs Charlie, Echo, and Foxtrot) in the southern portion of the enclave. These 8 Observation Posts were thus the main points from which to observe incursions into and out of the enclave along its approximately 50 km boundary. Partly due to a shortage of manpower, complete coverage of the enclave perimeter was not possible. Significant blind spots existed in a number of areas, particularly along the western portions of the perimeter.

Each of the eight OPs was manned by an average of seven soldiers, generally equipped with an Armoured Personnel Carrier (APC), with a .50 calibre heavy machine gun set atop. In addition, the OPs typically had one TOW anti-tank weapon mounted on top of the OP, a number of shoulder-launched AT-4 anti-tank rockets, along with the side arms and automatic weapons which each soldier carried. The OPs were not constructed as defensive positions from which to block or repel an attack into the enclave, but rather as positions from which to observe movements in the area. They were painted white and were clearly marked with UN flags. They were generally manned around the clock and were used as a point from which to conduct regular patrols in the area.

The first crisis which the Dutchbat faced was upon deployment in January 1995, during the stand-off in the Bandera triangle (described in para. 178 above). Following that crisis, they had established a ninth Observation Post, OP-Mike, near Simici. The second crisis they faced emerged in mid-February 1995 and continued to worsen until the departure of the battalion in late July 1995. During this time surrounding Serb forces tightened their squeeze on the enclave, whose fuel supplies were halted on 18 February. Unable to secure the fuel with which to operate their vehicles, Dutchbat added another three Observation Posts (Hotel, Kilo and Delta) from which they conducted foot patrols.

In contrast to the lightly armed Dutch peacekeepers, the Serbs were prepared for war. They used 1,000 to 2,000 well-equipped soldiers from three brigades of the BSA 5th Drina Corps to maintain the siege around the enclave. Additional units, including reconnaissance and special forces, could be brought in from other areas when needed. The Serbs were armed with tanks, tracked armoured vehicles, artillery and mortars. They had a well-developed system of command, control and communications, as well as superior capabilities in basic intelligence, information and psychological operations. The Serbs were also well supplied, and officers were paid with funds provided by the Yugoslav Army. Combined with their control of the most important strategic positions, the BSA was assessed to enjoy an overwhelming military advantage over the Bosnian Government forces in the enclave. Although the Bosniacs were numerically superior (3,000 to 4,000 men in the 28th Division), they had no heavy weapons, with the exception of a small number of anti-tank missiles that had been smuggled in (but which, it turned out, they did not know how to operate), and some light mortars. The Bosniacs were poorly trained and, due to the demilitarization agreements of 1993, conducted few operations or exercises. Command was fragmented, discipline was weak, morale was low, communications and logistics were largely non-existent. Their combat readiness was further impaired by UNPROFOR, which attempted to disarm any armed Bosniac it came across, though with limited success.

Bosnian military and civilian authorities at the highest levels now openly acknowledge that the Bosniacs, like the Serbs, were not fully compliant with the demilitarization agreements of 1993. However, a number of military experts inteviewed in the context of this report, including members of Dutchbat, assess that the ARBiH in Srebrenica posed no significant military threat to the BSA. Members of Dutchbat indicated that they would often hear, and report on, exchanges of small arms fire, but they were rarely able to establish which side had initiated the exchange and were seldom able to confirm casualties. The Serbs claimed at the time that tens to hundreds of BSA soldiers were killed during Bosniac raids out of the enclave in 1995. However, they would not allow Dutchbat personnel to go to the alleged scenes of the attacks to verify casualties. It appears that the most substantial military operation conducted by the Bosniacs of Srebrenica during the safe area period was the raid on Višnjica (described in para. 225 above).

Other than Dutchbat, the international presence in the enclave was limited. UNPROFOR had deployed three UNMOs and three Joint Commission Officers (JCOs). UNHCR maintained an office, but by mid-1995 it was staffed only by locally-recruited personnel, as was the ICRC presence. The one non-governmental organization active in Srebrenica, Médecins sans Frontières (MSF), maintained a small cadre of international medical staff. Lastly, the Swedish Government had assisted in providing accommodation for roughly 3,000 displaced persons in a location in the southern portion of the enclave, known as the Swedish Shelter Project; however, it was not managed by international personnel at that time.

The BSA continued to tighten their squeeze on the safe area from mid-February onward, progressively limiting the already restricted flow of humanitarian aid into the enclave, and constraining the provision of re-supplies to the Dutchbat. The day after OP Echo fell, on 3 June, the Dutchbat Commander expressed his frustrations to his superiors. He wrote that the Dutchbat is not able to execute any action nor can it respond to the deteriorating situation...being hostage of the BSA for over more than three months, something has to be done. He bemoaned the decision to withdraw from OP Echo, which he felt would open the way for the BSA to proceed with their offensive operations with only one objective: the Jadar Valley. He explained that the BSA capture of the Jadar Valley in the southern junction of the enclave would expose the approximately 3,000 refugees in the nearby Swedish Shelter Project to certain expulsion. Thus, he justified having taken the step of establishing two new Observation Posts (Uniform and Sierra) within the immediate proximity of where OP Echo had been, though he realized that this might provoke the BSA.

The Dutchbat Commander also expressed exasperation at the humanitarian situation. He stated that the warehouses in the enclave would be empty within days. He continued: Schools have been closed since the shelling of Srebrenica lately. Smuggling routes have been closed. Many inhabitants [have] left their houses and moved towards the city. Therefore these developments are most critical and tension has grown to a maximum. Both civil and military authorities are desperate and do not forsee any suitable solution...As Commanding Officer of Dutchbat, I would like, on behalf of the population of the enclave of Srebrenica, to ask the superior commands and the UN to make a plea for this deteriorating situation in any way and to give the battalion all possibilities to implement better living conditions.

Three weeks later, the Dutchbat Commander forwarded another plea. He complained that, since 26 April, the BSA had not allowed a single member of his battalion to leave the enclave or enter it. (Thus, those who had gone on leave previously were unable to return -- lowering the Battalions strength by approximately 150 soldiers). He added that there had been no food delivered in March. No fresh food, dairy products, flour-products or meat had been brought into the enclave since May. The BSA had also continued their now four-month-old restrictions on spare-parts and engineering equipment being brought in for the battalion. They also blocked supplies of fuel for UNPROFOR, which resorted to borrowing fuel from UNHCR, and to replacing vehicle patrols with foot patrols. These conditions had brought the Dutchbat Commander to the following conclusion: My battalion is no longer willing, able and in the position to consider itself as being impartial due to the... policy of the Bosnian-Serb government and the BSA. This long-lasting and severe situation is no longer acceptable for the soldiers. Therefore, it is my strongest opinion that this Bosnian-Serb government should be blamed for it in the full extent as well as for the consequences in the future. It does not appear that either of these two reports reached the UNPFs leadership. Nevertheless, UNPF and the United Nations Secretariat were already concerned about the seemingly hopeless situation in which UNPROFOR found itself in the eastern enclaves. In addition, the Secretariat would once again face the difficult task of finding another troop contributor to send a battalion to Srebrenica, as the Netherlands had expressed its wish not to replace Dutchbat-3 when it finished its tour in Srebrenica the following month. The United Kingdom, too, gave indications that it would soon want to redeploy its troops out of Gorañde and consolidate them in other parts of Bosnia.

Despite heightened concerns about the long-term situation in Srebrenica, UNPROFOR believed that significant military activity would be directed elsewhere in the immediate-term. The UNMOs from Sector North-East reported that, during the week of 25 June to 2 July 1995, the military situation around the Srebrenica enclave was less tense than in previous weeks. Fifty members of an elite BSA reconnaissance unit, the Drina Wolves had been seen moving around the south-east portion of the confrontation line in the area of OP Echo towards Jasenova. This movement was not assessed to be an indicator of a forthcoming offensive action, but perhaps an attempt by the BSA to intimidate the Bosniac refugees at the Swedish Shelter Project. The prevailing assessment at the time was that any potential military confrontation in the sector would most likely be in the Posavina area and the Majevica Hills in the western portion of the sector, and not around Srebrenica.

This assessment initially proved to be correct. On 4 July, UNPROFOR recorded a total of 491 detonations in Sector Northeast, of which only 47 occurred in the area around Srebrenica, compared with 111 in the Doboj finger and 92 in the Majevica Hills. On 5 July, the number of detonations decreased to 254, again mainly concentrated in Doboj, Nisici and the Majevica Hills. Only 6 detonations were reported around Srebrenica. By the end of the day, on 5 July, none of UNPROFORs elements at various levels had reported any activity around the Srebrenica area which might have suggested the possibility of an imminent offensive action. All of the United Nations personnel interviewed in the context of this report also stated that they were not passed any intelligence gathered by NATO or national governments about the possibility of an imminent BSA attack upon Srebrenica. In his daily report to the Secretariat, the SRSG noted that the most significant military event in the mission area on 5 July was an air attack by an unidentified aircraft against the Kostela power plant in the Bihaç pocket. The SRSG did, however, raise the precarious humanitarian situation in Srebrenica. UNPROFOR Civil-Military Operations assessed that the one humanitarian convoy that had managed to get through to Srebrenica during the first week of July would only provide very temporary relief and that regular convoys were required to alleviate the humanitarian situation. UNHCR reported that it had been able to meet only 30 percent of the food target for Srebrenica in June 1995 due to BSA restrictions on humanitarian convoys into the enclave.

During the preparation of this report, only two sources were able to recall any possible signs of an imminent attack on Srebrenica, and at that, only in the days immediately preceding the offensive that was to come. An UNPROFOR officer in Sector Northeast recalled the ARBiH having mentioned to his staff that there had been some unusual BSA troop movements in the Srebrenica area, though they could not tell for what purpose. On the basis of this information, UNPROFOR elements were requested to investigate the matter, but they could not verify the reports. In another instance, an international humanitarian worker (not based in Srebrenica) recalled having heard rumours, some time earlier, that the Serbs might be planning to shrink the pocket. He mentioned this to a colleague based in Srebrenica, adding that if he ever saw anything which might substantiate the rumours, he would send him a short coded message: Say hello to Ibrahim. On 4 July, while escorting a humanitarian convoy, he saw what appeared to be military preparations from Karakaj (where he crossed into Bosnian Serb-held territory from Serbia) down to Bratunac. He saw some heavy weapons and tanks, and, near Bratunac, tank tracks. On the basis of that, he contacted his colleague in Srebrenica that day, asking him to "say hello to Ibrahim." This signal of concern was passed on to Dutchbat.